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Skilled trade workers are still in short supply

Nov 6, 2024
The Fed's Beige Book reports shortages in industries including technology, manufacturing and construction.
Project manager Stephen Sasa works on updating the dining patio of a Portland, Oregon, restaurant. Sasa says journeyman carpenters who work with him make $40 to $50 an hour, plus benefits.
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As focus shifts from inflation to employment, the Fed’s job is still tricky 

Oct 23, 2024
The September rate cut raised hopes for a sturdy labor market into next year and beyond. The effect on jobs, though, may take time.
The labor market has shown strength and fragility this year. Potentially, lower interest rates could be good for business investment and hiring.
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Chicago Fed president explains “the hardest thing that a central bank has to do”

Oct 10, 2024
Austan Goolsbee talks about the Fed's timing in moments of transition, if COVID is still affecting the economy, and why he's a "data dog."
"I'm in the data dogs. And the thing about the data dogs [is that they] don't respond to one month," says Austan Goolsbee about the importance of taking the long view before making decisions.
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Will AI lead to layoffs? New data from CEOs says no

KPMG's latest U.S. CEO Outlook survey finds that more than 70% of corporate executives feel AI "will not dramatically change their workforce."
"What we feel is that these technologies like generative AI and AI are going to augment the skills of workers and employees," said KPMG's Paul Knopp.
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How reliable is the Sahm rule as a recession indicator?

Sep 11, 2024
Economist Claudia Sahm says even though the recession predictor is sounding the alarm, we shouldn't immediately fret.
The unemployment rate is kind of like a high school dance (bear with us): When the wallflowers join the floor, the number of dancers grows. Similarly, the unemployment rate grows when more unemployed people on the sidelines start looking for work.
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Could the U.S. ever attain 100% employment?

Sep 6, 2024
The U.S. unemployment rate has never reached zero, and it likely never will. But that’s not a bad thing.
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Job openings drop to lowest level since January 2021

Sep 4, 2024
The 7.7 million jobs available still outstrips the number of people seeking work, but the cooling trend may make job hunting harder next year.
New data points to a cooling job market, in line with the easing of inflation this year.
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For public good, not for profit.

While the manufacturing sector struggles, the services sector is doing just fine, thanks

Sep 4, 2024
The services sector has expanded in 47 of the last 50 months, according to the Institute for Supply Management. Several business owners in the sector report renewed strength this year.
The services sector is the primary employer in the U.S. It encompasses businesses including restaurants, hotels, marketing agencies, construction companies and laundromats.
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Job growth hasn't been as strong as we thought. But it's still growth.

Aug 21, 2024
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reduced its initial count of new jobs between March 2023 and March 2024 by more than 800,000.
U.S. job growth between early 2023 and early 2024 was almost 30% lower than originally reported.
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Will U.S. consumers keep the economy going?

Aug 15, 2024
Some reassuring news: The Census Bureau reported that retail sales were up a full percent in July from the month before.
Consumers spent almost $7 billion more in July than they did in June, but analysts say they are still looking for deals.
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